MRC National Institute for Medical Research, London
Science for Health
Influenza outbreak has not followed expected patterns
16 July 2009
Alan Hay (pictured) is reported to have said that the extensive summer outbreak of influenza in Britain had not followed expected patterns and warned that the Department of Health needs to be prepared for a more deadly form of the disease. He said:
We have been a little surprised by the degree of spread of this virus. A few weeks ago we anticipated that this was going to be a short series of outbreaks that would probably peter out before reappearing in the autumn or winter and that has proved not to be the case.
He expects the current UK outbreak to continue for another week or two before re-emerging in the winter. However, the high level of sufferers now could mean that an winter outbreak would be less severe. He said:
We are already experiencing this extensive outbreak of the flu at the present time. The people who are being affected will have reasonable immunity against the virus if it reappears during the winter season, which we anticipate. That will lessen the impact subsequently [on health services]. So forecasting what will happen is rather difficult but what the Department of Health has to be prepared for is for there to be significant demand on health services resources.
The concern is that the situation might change, the virus may become more virulent. There have been a small number of cases of resistance to antiviral drugs but no sustained emergence of resistance. We're not totally sure what to expect. Because on the one hand, prior to a year ago, really the anticipation was for very low levels of drug resistance, and then we had the experience in late 2007 with the emergence of drug resistance of seasonal H1N1. And those emerged to become the predominant seasonal virus that has circulated recently. That was really an unanticipated event. We don't know what the implications of that are in the emergence of this novel virus. It is a concern.
Original article
His comments are reported in an article is on the front page of the Guardian on 15th July 2009. A longer interview, including a short audio clip, is on the Guardian website
Swine flu health experts surprised by spread of virus in the UK
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