The threat of an influenza epidemic ::

from Mill Hill Essays 2005 [ISBN 0-9546302-3-8]

A man takes his goose chicks for a walk in Taiping, about 1,100 miles south of Beijing, (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)

H5N1 influenza viruses have attracted enormous attention since they caused infections in 18 people in Hong Kong in 1997, resulting in 6 deaths. Since then the virus has become widespread in poultry in the Far East and as far as Eastern Europe, causing fatal human infections in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, China H5N1 influenza viruses have attracted enormous attention since they caused infections in 18 people in Hong Kong in 1997, resulting in 6 deaths. Since then the virus has become widespread in poultry in the Far East and as far as Eastern Europe, causing fatal human infections in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, China and Cambodia, and now in Turkey. The virus responsible originated in Southern China and in fact can be traced back to a virus detected in 1996, in a goose such as those shown in the picture, from Guandong Province. As we go to press the World Health Organization World Influenza Centre in the Institute at Mill Hill is confirming human cases of H5N1 from Turkey and sequencing the virus genome to characterize the virus fully. So the threat of avian H5N1 transferring to humans and initiating a worldwide epidemic continues. But there are some differences this time by comparison with previous pandemics in 1918, 1957 and 1968, in our ability to respond. We have lookouts in laboratories worldwide searching for evidence of the virus in birds and humans. We can characterize any that they find more quickly, and with that information we can prepare appropriate vaccines within months at the current high level of preparedness. We also for the first time have antivirals like Tamiflu and of course, unlike 1918, we have antibiotics this time to block secondary bacterial infections. Despite these advances the major efforts must be to stop the spread of H5N1 in birds, to eradicate it from the avian population and in that way to stop infection of humans before the virus has the chance to spread from human to human.